New technologies as an instrument of electoral prospective. The 2010 elections for Rector of the University of Valencia.

Abstract

In the 2010 elections for rector of the Universitat de València, four candidates, an unusually high number, were in the running to lead the institution. Taking advantage of the possibilities offered by current technology, for the first time in Spain, a prospective study of the electoral process of an academic institution has been carried out. The project has sought to experiment with three prediction methods (an expert method, an online survey of professors and an information market) to try to reduce the uncertainty associated with the process, provide information to the university community and compare the benefits of the prediction strategies. This article describes the experience, shows the successful results and warns of the difficulties and resistance that a study of this nature can encounter. Observing the results obtained, the survey’s predictions proved to be significantly more accurate than the experts’ opinions, although, as is the case in almost all electoral surveys, it also showed a non-response bias. The full implementation of the information market, a demoscopical research tool that is already being used successfully in the United States, was unfortunately slowed down and could not be tested.

Jose Manuel Pavia Pau Rausell Köster Francisco Marco Serrano Vicente Coll Serrano Journal Article Journal Metodología de Encuestas Volume 13 Issue 1 Pages 73-98